The Scottish referendum: Bookies were predicting an 80 percent chance of a ‘no’ vote, while the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.
Did bookies understand the results of this Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure appears that way.
Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 per cent of voters determining against dissolving the 300-year union of nations and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was as wide as 10 percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions had been split straight down the middle.
The simple truth is, polls were throughout the spot: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a lead that is six-point the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote within the weeks leading up to your referendum. And although these were precisely predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the special day, they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory.
Margins of Error
Maybe Not the bookies, though. They’d it all figured out ages ago. Even though the pollsters’ predictions were see-sawing, online sports betting outfit Betfair had already decided to pay out bettors who had their money on a’no’ vote a few days before the referendum even occurred. Even though there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made Continue reading Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum